|Kentucky Derby Betting Favorite Big Brown Preview (04-30-08)|
This 2-year-old Kentucky Derby contender dominated his debut by 11 1/4 lengths on Saratoga's turf course. I actually attended the races that day and saw him pay $31.40 to win. This was closing day at the spa. Big Brown is clearly the favorite in the Kentucky Derby, and if he wins, he will be worth millions as a stallion. Check out the Kentucky Derby betting odds at bodoglife.com
About two weeks after his big win at the spa, Big Brown was purchased by IEAH Stables and the colt was turned over to trainer Dutrow. After he won the Florida Derby, jockey Kent Desormeaux had this to say..."I have never been so excited about a horse." Dutrow trained 2005 Horse of the Year, Saint Liam and led the nations in wins in 2001 and 2002.
This horse is one of the best, but Dutrow has never had good success at Churchill Downs. The first weekend in May in Louisville is traditionally wet, windy and cold. Translated...slow with traffic and nowhere to go. Do you think this trainer has prepared him for that? I know he hasn't in the past. Big Brown is a horse with speed. Any fast horse can run clean and win. It will be a mad scramble to the lead, and what happens when a youngster gets pushed around?
Big Brown may hit the board. He has very good distance breeding, however he is a very bullish young colt. In the Florida Derby he got the lead and went wire to wire. But I don't think he raced against anyone that good. He came for home, very leg weary, going in and out but still clear from the other horses. He has to learn how to pace and kick for the finish if he is going to win the 2008 Kentucky Derby. That was at a 1 1/8 mile and in the Kentucky Derby they go 1 1/4 mile. So if he goes to the lead, like he should, it would be hard to hold I think. Desormeaux is one of the best jockeys around, so you can't count him out. I just think that there are all these Kentucky Derby contenders in the race and anything can happen. You are better off going with another horse because this one will go off the favorite.
He obviously needs to be on the lead, and there will plenty of other horses who race in the same style. But everything could change with the post position. If Big Brown draws the inside and all the other "speed" horses draw outside of him, then Big Brown could have a very easy and uncontested lead.
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|Last Updated ( Wednesday, 30 April 2008 14:25 )|